Outlook for emerging markets

Current situation and outlook for emerging markets. South Korea, Taiwan, India, Russia and Brazil. Global markets keep rally going since I posted last time general picture about emerging markets.

South Korea

South Korea is recovering at the fastest pace from all developing countries. Industrial production grew in August for the seventh time in a row. Business confidence is highest for the past 22 months, consumer confidence even in the last 7 years. Outlook for GDP is positive due to trade with China which accounts quarter of external trade.

Taiwan

The local economy has touched the bottom in June and the main indicators suggest a recovery in coming months. As an example is semiconductor manufacturing. In 2010 is expected rapid growth of GDP mainly due to investment and industrial production.

India

India is no longer in decline. Second quarter GDP grew by 6.1 percent and it seems that at the end of the year to achieve growth within the government estimate, that is 7 to 8 percent. The Indian economy is driven mainly by domestic demand and therefore there is not significant impact by decline in exports about 19 percent. This has confirmed June industrial production growth by 7.8 percent.

Monetary and fiscal actions have maintained a strong flow of investment and a good level of private consumption. For this reason and because of the threat of inflation is expected tightening of monetary policy by the central bank early in 2010. Relatively dry monsoon season this year, threatening the harvest of agricultural crops. But this can not be overstated, however, the primary importance of the economy, because its share of India's GDP has been steadily diminishing.

Russia

Russian economy continued to decline sharply in the second quarter year on year by 10.9 percent, and inflation is also in two digits (-11.6 percent in August). But the price of oil could help the economy, as well as the growing global economy and its associated demand. The first signs can be seen in industrial production, which slowed down the decline of 16.8 percent in April in July's 10.85 percent. Inflation is high, but stable, so the Russian Central Bank to continue its expansionary monetary policy.

Brazil

Situation in the largest South American economy has been improving. Industrial production in July grew by 2 percent, although the year has continued to decline. Index of manufacturing managers grew for the first time since September. Already four months falling unemployment, which in July was at 8 percent. This obviously helps and consumer confidence. Brazilian central bank confirmed the end of an expansionary monetary policy (since the beginning of the year lowered interest rate by 5 percent).